Iran: The Bazaar Report

Iran
The Bazaar Report 31-Jul-2021
Top 3 Company Headlines
IRENEX & IME to boost capital (Financial Tribune 06-Jul)
7 insurance cos banned for non-compliance (Financial Tribune 01-Jul)
RIPI deal with knowledge-based firms (Tehran Times 11-Jul)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Raisi inauguration incoming (Chatham House 31-Jul)
World Bank projects 2.1% growth (Tehran Times 27-Jul)
33 projects in SEZs announced (Tehran Times 26-Jul)
The Bazaar’s View
As expected, negotiations over a nuclear deal stalled with the elections. Raisi’s inuaguration is on 03-Aug. He has said that he would honour negotiations as state policy. Iran has said that there is an agreement in place but sticking points remain, notably on US attempts to curb Iran’s regional influence, and alleged US refusal to guarantee it will not leave the JCPOA again. Secretary of State Blinken has warned that negotiations cannot go on indefinitely, while Special Envoy Malley spoke of the risk that Iran may return to negotiations with unrealistic demands. Negotiations will continue, but the extent to which the negotiation tactics and demands of Iran will differ following the election remains to be seen.
Raisi prioritises building upon relations with China, Russia, and neighbouring countries. Domestically he will have to find a solution to another rising wave of Covid-19 infections, and listen to the voice of protestors who throughout July have rallied against shortages in water and electricity. Solutions to this must include improving managemental efficiency and building new infrastructure over distribution networks. Raisi’s government has a lot of work to do.
Fun Fact: Iran had unveiled a new state-approved dating app to boost marriage (Guardian 13-Jul)

The Bazaar Report 31-May-2021
Top 3 Company Headlines
KPC to increase petroleum production (Financial Tribune 30-May)
ATA Airlines to induct 3 Embraer planes into fleet (Financial Tribune 30-May)
Petropars awarded $1.78bn gas field contract (WorldOil 16-May)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Hard-liner Raisi favourite for election; Hemmati to challenge (FT 30-May)
‘Final round’ of Nuclear Deal talks resumed (Business Standard 31-May)
Crypto mining banned for four months after blackouts (BBC 26-May)
The Bazaar’s View
If Raisi wins on 18-Jun, negotiations over the Nuclear Deal will become more complicated. The conservatives are resistant and apprehensive towards the US. Hemmati has positioned himself as a pragmatist who can revive the deal. He has just been dismissed as Central Bank Governor due to fears of interference, but clearly the prospects of rebuilding relations with the West are stronger if he were to win. Besides him and Mehralizadeh, the rest of the 7 candidates are hardliners, with the Guardian Council controversially disqualifying reformists such as Es’haq Jahangiri.
Meanwhile, the 5th round of Vienna talks continue, with suggestions that this may be the last before some agreement is made. Tehran and IAEA have agreed to extend UN nuclear inspections for an extra month after they expired in late May, biding time for an agreement to be made. The Bazaar expects some agreement to be made before the elections, but it will be fascinating to see the implications of the election results on subsequent negotiations and relations.
Fun Fact: Iran Tuti Books was nominated for the Bologna Best Children’s Publishers prize (Tehran Times 30-May)

The Bazaar Report 30-April-2021
Top 3 Company Headlines
Chinese firms to fund Tehran freeway project (Press TV 28-Apr)
SAP (SAPG:DE) $8m fine for Iran exports (Reuters 29-Apr)
SnowaTech to launch innovation factory in Isfahan (Tehran Times 20-Apr)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Nuclear Deal negotiation revival (Bloomberg 30-Apr)
Chinese investment reported at $400bn (Financial Tribune 13-Apr)
Banks allowed to pay for imports in cryptocurrency (Financial Tribune 24-Apr)
The Bazaar’s View
Iran’s chief negotiator indicated that sanctions will be lifted. The US National Security Advisor emphasised a willingness on all sides. The IAEA monitoring deal ends with Iran on 22-May. The Bazaar expects some agreement to be announced in the next few weeks. The depth will depend on how Tehran agrees to meet US compliance demands.
Iranian officials said that China is willing to invest $80bn in Iran’s mining sector. There is scepticism based on Beijing’s tendency to underdeliver on previous infrastructural projects. Further analysis also suggests that this deal currently just provides a general framework for Sino-Persian cooperation, with no confirmed quantitative contracts yet in place. What is certain is that cooperation further reduces Western dependency in the medium-long term.
Fun Fact: The Italian embassy in Tehran celebrates 160 years of partnership (Financial Tribune 30-Apr)

The Bazaar Report 31-March-2021
Top 3 Company Headlines
India’s Bharat Biotech vaccine imported (Mint 11-Mar)
Rail Pardaz & Sarmayeh Madar IPOs cancelled (Financial Tribune 13-Mar)
Mobarakeh remains MENA’s top steel producer (Financial Tribune 17-Mar)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
$400bn 25-year China agreement (Financial Times 27-Mar)
Pres. Rouhani blames hardliners for delaying US talks (Reuters 17-Mar)
Energy Ministry to promote renewable crypto mining (Financial Tribune 17-Mar)
The Bazaar’s View
Last year’s 18 page draft of the China deal suggests greater cooperation in many sectors including energy, military, and maritime projects to incorporate Tehran into the Belt and Road Initiative.
The deal is a further step away from US economic influence. This will be beneficial in the medium to long term if combined with building stronger regional ties and diversification of national revenues away from oil. Sceptics will say that China is taking advantage of a vulnerable Iran to exploit its vast hydrocarbon reserves and gain regional geopolitical power.
The Bazaar is cautiously optimistic that this will become win-win cooperation. In the meantime the short-term health of the Iranian economy is largely dependent on removing sanctions, but talks with the US have stalled.
Fun Fact: Nowruz, which means “new day” in Farsi, is the Persian New Year, and it was celebrated 20-Mar this year (CNN 20-Mar)

The Bazaar Report 28-Feb-21
Top 3 Company Headlines
Opal Kani Pars Mineral Co IPO fails (Financial Tribune 27-Feb)
Jam Petrochem Co to increase sales by 33% Y-O-Y (Financial Tribune 10-Feb)
Swiss firms incl Nestle, Novartis, Syngenta, looking to invest (IFP News 22-Feb)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Tehran temporarily rejects direct talks with US on nuclear deal (Financial Times 28-Feb)
$240m to promote exports to Africa (Financial Tribune 24-Feb)
Govt equity finance raised $12bn last year & new debt market laws (Financial Tribune 20-Feb)
The Bazaar’s View
Rejection of talks with the US and Europe are not a major setback. It is further evidence that those expecting an imminent return to a nuclear deal will have to remain patient. Iran said the timing of talks was not appropriate because they have not yet seen a change in the US position on sanctions.Tehran says it will continue to consult with the US via other channels. Washington has expressed some disappointment but stated it is ready to re-engage in meaningful diplomacy to return to mutual compliance. Robert Malleys appointment as the Special Envoy for Iran should accelerate proceedings. He was the lead negotiator on the 2015 nuclear agreement.
Fun Fact: Playwright and director Nasrin Khanjari will stage a puppet show warning about the garbage crisis around the world (Tehran Times 23-Feb)

The Bazaar Report 31-Jan-21
Top 3 Company Headlines
Hami Sazeh Kian’s divestment deal rejected (Financial Tribune 08-Jan)
Fara Bourse set up OTC market (Financial Tribune 29-Jan)
Bank Sepah face post-merger credit squeeze (Financial Tribune 25-Jan)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Nuclear deal architect made US special envoy (Guardian 29-Jan)
$650m for suffering auto industry (Financial Tribune 30-Jan)
Covid vaccine rollout in coming weeks as cases fall (Reuters 23-Jan)
The Bazaar’s View
FM Zarif insisted that Iran will return to full compliance after the US ends sanctions. Secretary of State Antony Blinkin’s stance is that Tehran will have to comply first. There will have to be patience. The expected appointment of Robert Malley as US special envoy may smooth negotiations.
Russia’s Sputnik V was officially sanctioned for rollout and there are negotiations with other vaccine suppliers. 3 domestic vaccines are in development and could even be rolled out by spring. Cuba will help after signing an accord for tech transfer of its most advanced candidate. Iran is also partnering with the WHO COVAX scheme. Successful rollout will significantly benefit the Iranian economy, but Tehran, like everyone else, will have to wait to see the impact of new variants on vaccine efficacy.
Fun Fact: Cryptomining was suspended for 2 weeks to lessen shortages amid power cuts across the country (Business Insider 23-Jan)

The Bazaar Report 31-Dec-20
Top 3 Company Headlines
Bank Sepah merger complete; now biggest lender (Financial Tribune 25-Dec)
Pars Reinsurance & Charisma Life enter insurance industry (Financial Tribune 29-Dec)
US blacklists Chinese, UAE firms for Iran Petrochem trade (Reuters 16-Dec)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Global business wary of Iran deal talks (Financial Times 13-Dec)
Mar-Sep growth at 1.3% Y-O-Y (Bloomberg 13-Dec)
New cash payments for 40m citizens (Financial Tribune 25-Dec)
The Bazaar’s View
Lingering uncertainty means large Western firms are still cautious of investing into Iran. Foreign SMEs appear more willing, shown by interest from around 100 Italian tech, machinery, and banking firms. All is still dependent on the outcome of US-Iran negotiations. Reformists such as President Rouhani and FM Zarif are still very open to re-entering negotiations. Conservatives reject any talk with the US. Whether this is just rhetoric remains to be seen. Crucially, the Conservatives have a parliamentary majority and are backed to win in the June presidental election.
While much focus till now has been on the US elections, those in Iran will also determine the success of negotiations, and thus the lifting of sanctions.
Fun Fact: Iran started human testing of its first domestic Covid-19 vaccine (Reuters 29-Dec)

The Bazaar Report 30-Nov-2020
Top 3 Company Headlines
Bank Maskan loans up 46% to $767m in 7 months (Financial Tribune 19-Nov)
Pars Company is 40% of total gasoline output (Financial Tribune 16-Nov)
Aeroflot resume Tehran flights (The Iran Project 13-Nov)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Anticipated Biden win indicates foreign investment (Reuters 24-Nov)
Food CPI inflation at 25% Y-O-Y (Financial Tribune 24-Nov)
Renewed interest for govt bonds; 2 month high. (Financial Tribune 26-Nov)
The Bazaar’s View
A Biden victory would indicate an easing of sanctions on Iran’s economy. However, the Trump administration and its allies will continue to do as much damage as possible, exemplified by the recent assassination of Iran’s top nuclear scientist. Despite this, the Bazaar is still confident of a diplomatic compromise in the upcoming months.
In preparation the EU will host a conference for potential investors in Iran in Dec. Talks with foreign companies have started. The govt also said that companies which did not leave Iran during the sanctions will be given more opportunities. Change will not happen overnight though, and there could be a new agreement also covering Iran’s ballistic missiles program.
Fun Fact: Iran FC remain at 29th in Fifa World Rankings (Tehran Times 27-Nov)

The Bazaar Report 31-Oct-2020
Top 3 Company Headlines
IranAir flights to Europe return to pre-pandemic schedules (Financial Tribune 30-Oct)
Berkshire Hathaway $4.14m sanction violation settlement (Reuters 20-Oct)
NICICO copper sales grow 61% Y-O-Y (Financial Tribune 05-Oct)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Iran would return to JPCOA with guarantees that US can’t pull out (Bourse & Bazaar 27-Oct)
Covid deaths at record high, new restrictions announced (Al Jazeera 31-Oct)
Trade vol with Germany highest in EU: 41% of bloc & 15% Y-O-Y rise (Financial Tribune 19-Oct)
The Bazaar’s View
While Iran has spent recent times diversifying away from dependence on the US, a Joe Biden victory would have a transformative impact on the economy. His favouring of diplomacy suggests removal of sanctions and strong potential for return to the nuclear deal. A Trump victory would be highly damaging but Iran has been preparing for this scenario.
Managing Covid remains the top priority. It will be so until a vaccine and more effective treatments are administered.
Fun Fact: Tehran’s Persepolis beat Al Nassr on penalties to reach the final of the Asian Champions League (Arab News 04-Oct)

The Bazaar Report 30-Sep-2020
Top 3 Company Headlines:
Raja Rail & Novin Sanat Raja to join capital market (Tehran Times 22-Sep)
Iran Airports overflight revenues fall 46% Y-O-Y (Financial Tribune 04-Sep)
Petrotech FZE among firms sanctioned for oil embargo evasion (Bourse & Bazaar 03-Sep)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Trump considering sanctioning entire financial sector (Al Jazeera 28-Sep)
600 projects in Free Trade Zones planned for Aug-2021 (Tehran Times 27-Sep)
Stock market TEDPIX plummeting, 1% of SWF set aside (Bloomberg 08-Sep)
The Bazaar’s View
The dispute between European leaders and the US continues.The E3 says that US attempts to reimpose UN sanctions is legally void.
The Trump administration's potential financial sector sanctions on Iran would see it completely isolated from the global financial system, blacklisting around 14 banks and severing all remaining legal links that Iran has. The second element to the proposed sanctions is a clause that will make it harder for Joe Biden to re-enter the JCPOA if he wins the election. Although Iran is implementing vast developmental projects to diversify away from reliance on the US and oil, the implications of the US election are extremely important.
Fun Fact: Three Iranians films will compete in the Tokyo International Film Festival (Tehran Times 29-Sep)

The Bazaar Report 31-Aug-2020
Top 3 Company Headlines
Parthia Cargo, Delta Parts Supply FZC sanctioned for supporting Mahan Air (Bourse & Bazaar 19-Aug)
NIOC, Global Petrotech Kish Company, Petrotenco, Petropars deal (Tehran Times 17-Aug)
Bank Saderat Iran cargo transport fleet deal (Tehran Times 14-Aug)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Europe reject US bid to ‘snapback’ UN sanctions (Bourse & Bazaar 20-Aug)
Pres Rouhani: US return to JPCOA the only option for talks (Reuters 25-Aug)
Plans to sell oil securities to Iranian people to boost state revenues (Reuters 12-Aug)
The Bazaar’s View
The unprecedented ‘snapback’ clause would have seen a restoration of all international sanctions previously lifted as part of the 2015 JPCOA. 13 of 15 Security Council members opposed the US, constituting a further UN defeat after the US also failed to garner support to extend Iran’s arms embargo past October. European rhetoric is to preserve the JPCOA. Success largely rests on a Joe Biden election victory in November. Supreme Leader Khamenei claims that Tehran will plan and assume that sanctions will continue. Reducing reliance on a Biden victory means diversification away from reliance on the US and oil. Iran is doing this, and should continue both its restructuring away from oil and moves towards its regional and Eastern partnerships. This and managing the large spike in Covid-19 cases are what Iran can control and must focus on until we wait to see the outcome of the US election.
Fun Fact: The end of August marks Ashura, a holy day for Shia muslims marking the death of Husayn ibn Ali, Grandson of prophet Muhammad (Morocco World News 29-Aug)

The Bazaar Report 31-Jul 2020
Top 3 Company Headlines
Emirates airlines resumes Iran flights (Bourse & Bazaar 19-Jul)
Petropars deal to double South Azadegan output (Bloomberg 20-Jul)
Automaker SAIPA upgrades contracts with 48 tech companies (Financial Tribune 11-Jul)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
$400bn economic and security China deal (Forbes 17-Jul)
Iran to shun meetings with US; Biden propositions offer hope (Bourse & Bazaar 31-Jul)
Second wave of Covid-19, but lockdown not an option (BBC 24-Jul)
The Bazaar’s View
Supreme leader Khamenei believes any talks would only benefit Trump in the build up to the US election. A Joe Biden win would see a strong possibility of returning to the JPCOA. Nevertheless, Tehran continues to reduce its dependency on the West.
Similar to other Chinese agreements in Asia and Africa, the deal will entail large infrastructure investments, closer strategic cooperation, and likely oil discounts. The success of the deal will depend on making it work for Iran’s internal interests as well as China.
Achieving this, as well as a Joe Biden victory, and managing Covid-19, will offer a big cause for optimism in 2021 and beyond.
Fun Fact: Persepolis FC claim their fourth successive Iranian Premier League title (Tehran Times 24-Jul)

The Bazaar Report 30-Jun-2020
Top 3 Company Headlines
SOE SHASTA IPO, 15% share sale in Tamin Cement Investment Company (Financial Tribune 26-Jun)
US sanctions Mobarakeh Steel Company (Bourse & Bazaar 25-Jun)
First Iranian supermarket to open in Venezuela (Al-Monitor 22-Jun)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Vaccine trials beginning, but stricter measures after spike in deaths (Bourse & Bazaar 28-Jun)
Growth projections of 2.1% for 2021 (World Bank 08-Jun)
Y-O-Y rent increases over 20-25% banned (Financial Tribune 28-Jun)
The Bazaar’s View
Covid-19 is still ominous. Deaths have exceeded 10,000, with the 144 new deaths on 28-Jun being the highest death toll for a single day. The response has been to make wearing masks compulsory in certain areas, although implementation may be difficult.
Struggle continues with the US. The Trump administration is trying to extend Iran’s arms embargo beyond October, threatening a UN sanctions snapback. While the E3 supports the former, they oppose maximum pressure and unilateral attempts to trigger a snapback. Russia and China have opposed pressure on Tehran, and will veto the embargo in the Security Council. Despite this support, European actions need to match rhetoric if the JPCOA is to survive.

Fun Fact: A rare manuscript of a 15th Century Iranian Quran sold for over £7m at Christie’s auction house (Tehran Times 28-Jun)

The Bazaar Report 30-Apr-2020
Top 3 Company Headlines
SOE SHASTA IPO, 10% share sale (FT 15-Apr)
Bank Sepah merger in final phase (Financial Tribune 25-Apr)
South Aluminium begin biggest sectoral project (Financial Tribune 24-Apr)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Borders open and some restrictions lifted amid threat to economy (FT 27-Apr)
New policy tools introduced to combat crisis (Bourse & Bazaar 22-Apr)
US threaten fresh sanctions through nuclear deal clause (FT 29-Apr)
The Bazaar’s View
Prompted by numerous projections, borders have reopened to spur regional trade. Inter-city travel restrictions are also lifted, while some businesses, including shopping malls and bazaars, have reopened. An estimated 6m food packages have been delivered to the poor, while measures introduced include guaranteeing bank credit of $61 to 23m families. The SHASTA IPO generated $437m to help reduce the fiscal deficit. Open Market Operations (OMOs) to influence interbank interest rates may be hampered by underdeveloped interbank lending due to low reserves.
Balancing public health and the economy is a task that will plunge Iran into unparalleled uncertainty during the month of Ramadan.
Fun Fact: 16 year old Iranian chess prodigy shocks World Chess Champion in final of Banter Blitz Cup (CNN 17-Apr)

The Bazaar Report 31-Mar-2020
Top 3 Company Headlines
US blacklists Chinese, South African firms for Iran oil trade (Reuters 18-Mar)
Khodro insist no production changes from Covid-19 (Financial Times 22-Mar)
50 firms keen to join Swiss humanitarian channel to Iran (IFP News 08-Mar)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
US imposes fresh sanctions amid calls for their removal (Tasnim 28-Mar)
20% of state budget to fight Covid-19 (Reuters 28-Mar)
Iran requests IMF loan, 1st time in 60 years (Bourse & Bazaar 17-Mar)
The Bazaar’s View
$6.3bn of the emergency budget will include grants and lower interest rates to those affected. President Rouhani stressed that state health insurance will cover 90% of Covid-19 costs. Other financing includes Rouhani’s requested $1bn from the Sovereign Wealth Fund and $5bn through the IMF’s Rapid Financing Instrument.Sanctions relief is also necessary. Restrictions on accessing the international financial system make it harder to buy medicine and equipment.
The UN Secretary General and High Commissioner for Human Rights are among those calling for an end to the unilateral sanctions. A global effort is required to defeat Covid-19. It is in the interests of the international community to help Iran.
Fun Fact: Exiled Iranian musicians critical of their government ironically converged to perform at a Saudi Arabian music festival (Reuters 19-Mar)

The Bazaar Report 29-Feb-2020
Top 3 Company Headlines
NIOC & Mapna Group $1.3bn oilfield deal (Financial Tribune 08-Feb)
Tose’e insurance co returning to market after 2014 ban (Financial Tribune 16-Feb)
Italian banks such as ING Direct Bank restrict Iranian accounts (Financial Tribune 14-Feb)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Coronavirus severely impacting Iran (Financial Times 24-Feb)
Conservatives victorious in 1st round of parliamentary elections (Bourse & Bazaar 22-Feb)
FATF ‘blacklists’ Iran (Bourse & Bazaar 24-Feb)
The Bazaar’s View
While the Coronavirus has had severe global implications, its effects have been particularly pronounced in Iran. Deaths are continuously rising, neighbouring countries have closed borders, flights have been cancelled, and institutions have been shut. Combined with the pre-existing climate, the situation has reached a new low, with prospects in the short term remaining low.
Meanwhile, the conservatives comfortable victory may not bode well for improving external relations and sanctions negotiations. These are worsened by the blacklisting which will make it difficult for Iran to order any new cross-border financial channels.
Fun Fact: Kish Gallery on the Persian Gulf island Kish opens, showcasing a collection from Austrian architect and urban planner Otto Wagner (Tehran Times 29-Feb)

The Bazaar Report 31-Jan-2020
Top 3 Company Headlines
6 firms Trilliance Petrochem & Sage Energy, hit with US sanctions (Reuters 23-Jan)
Bank Pasargad plans branch in Mumbai (Financial Tribune 17-Jan)
SAIPA subsidiary Pars Khodro to restart producing Renault cars (Financial Tribune 27-Jan)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Unprecedented tensions culminate in new wave of sanctions (Financial Times 10-Jan)
Europe trigger dispute mechanism despite still claiming support for JPCOA (BBC 14-Jan)
Swiss humanitarian channel operational, US cancer and transplant medicines sent (Reuters 30-Jan)
The Bazaar’s View
Janurary began with the threat of direct war with the US following the assassination of highly influential General Qassem Soleimani. Military tensions have since deescalated despite domestic protests. The US responded with fresh sanctions on the construction, mining, manufacturing and textile industries. However, 4 waivers were extended for 60 days on Iran’s civil nuclear program.The dispute mechanism could lead to UNSC referral to restore UN sanctions on Iran. Tehran has thus threatened to quit the deal or even withdraw from the 1968 Nuclear Proliferation Treaty.
Events this month dampen our outlook on the economy and further emphasise Iran’s volatility following a December of relative stability.
Fun Fact: The 12 Tehran Auction of Iranian artworks sells art worth $2.4m (Financial Tribune 30-Jan)

The Bazaar Report 31-Dec-2019
Top 3 Company Headlines
3 Indonesian companies breach sanctions (Bourse & Bazaar 19-Dec)
Iran Airports Co revenues decline 14% (Financial Tribune 18-Dec)
Aviation agencies inv $46m in tech firms & startups (Financial Tribune 08-Dec)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
‘Budget of resistance’ proposals unveiled for Mar-2020 (Bourse & Bazaar 08-Dec)
Gold and bartering considered for evading sanctions (Reuters 21-Dec)
$430m trade with EEU at pref rates; FTA to take effect in 2-3yrs (Financial Tribune 29-Dec)
The Bazaar’s View
Russia will be investing $5bn into the $36bn “budget of resistance”. Iran is joined by Turkey, Qatar and Malaysia, for discussion in Kuala Lumpur. The summit was snubbed by Saudi Arabia for undermining its own. Iran has exported $180m in commodities, and imported $250m, largely in essential goods, to the Eurasian Economic Union since the onset of the agreement on 27- Oct. While this is the first step towards an FTA, only 23% of total exports to the EEU have come at the preferential rate.
Tehran has experienced more stability this month, but the year has been one of unprecedented hardships. Economic restructuring away from Western dependence will continue in 2020.
Fun Fact: The 14th Fajr International Poetry Festival will begin in Isfahan on Thursday 02-Jan (Tehran Times 03-Dec)

The Bazaar Report 30-Nov-2019
Top 3 Company Headlines
National Petrochemical Co forecasts higher growth rates (Financial Tribune 13-Nov)
Joint construction company to be set up in Syria (Iran-Daily 26-Nov)
Mobarakeh Steel Company has the largest share of production in Iran (Financial Tribune 16-Nov)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Huge anti-government protests; hundreds dead, 731 banks torched (Reuters 27-Nov)
6 countries join INSTEX despite French warnings of triggering dispute mechanism (Iran-Daily 29-Nov)
Tourism increases coming from regional countries rather than Europe (Financial Tribune 27-Nov)
The Bazaar’s View
The largest protests since 2009 have lead to much instability. Protests began as a response to fuel prices rising 300% but have since turned into general anti-regime animosity. The internet was shut down for 5 days last week. While protests are dying down, there remains much uncertainty in Iran, and the situation appearst bleaker than last months relative optimism.
France’s foreign minister Yves Le Drian warnings suggest a possible imposition of UN sanctions for violating the nuclear deal, but Iran have dismissed these claims and the Bazaar believes this is not likely.
Fun Fact: Int Documentary Festival honors Iranian cinema with 3 awards (Tehran Times 29-Nov)

The Bazaar Report 31-Oct-2019
Top 3 Company Headlines
CNPC quits $5bn South Pars gas field project (Bourse & Bazaar 06-Oct)
Iran air in operating profit, reversing years of loss (Financial Tribune 08-Oct)
Arvand Petrochemical 2nd biggest producer of EPVC in M.E (Iran Daily 22-Oct)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
IMF forecasts economy to shrink 9.5% this year, but to rebound next year (Reuters 15-Oct)
Govt to sell stakes in state oil firms to finance debts (Financial Tribune 27-Oct)
Auto part makers & SMEs $100m deal to reduce import overdependence (Financial Tribune 07-Oct)
The Bazaar’s View
Despite sanctions, growth is projected to rebound to 0%, echoing the Bazaar’s previous hopes that recovery is possible. Signs of recovery are underway, highlighted by returning stability to inflation. The September 6.1% CPI rate was the slowest since the reimposition of sanctions. The rial is also recovering, the manufacturing sector slowly expanding, and non-oil exports are at record levels of over $40bn. Sanctions have enforced a structural adjustment away from oil.
It has been a very difficult year for Iran and its people, but there are signs that the impact of sanctions may be at least somewhat overcome faster than predicted.
Fun Fact: Iranian women are free to enter football stadiums for the first time since the 1979 revolution (Bourse and Bazaar 09-Oct)

The Bazaar Report 30-Sep-2019
Top 3 Company Headlines
Pars Oil & Petro Pars sign $440m Gulf Gas Field agreement (Bourse & Bazaar 15-Sep)
Iran Insurance Company to boost capital (Financial Tribune 04-Sep)
Merging of 5 military banks making progress (Financial Tribune 07-Sep)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
EU support diminishing after attacks on Saudi oil facilities (Al Jazeera 28-Sep)
Iran slowly deepening ties with China, Russia (Independent 30-Sep)
Digital payment transactions rise 26% yoy (Financial Tribune 10-Sep)
The Bazaar’s View
The EU has joined the US in blaming the attacks on Iran, denting hopes of cooperation to preserve the JPCOA and make INSTEX effective. Deepening economic ties with China will see Iran integrated into the belt and road programme, while Russia and Iran have already linked their banking systems to bypass the SWIFT network that the US can monitor. The Bazaar believes that the impact of these deepening ties will be experienced in the longer term. The impact of US sanctions will not be offset dramatically over the short term.
Fun Fact: The men’s volleyball world championships is underway and Iran remain hopeful despite losing the opening game to Russia. (Tehran Times 30-Sep)

The Bazaar Report 31-Aug-2019
Top 3 Company Headlines
Karun Petrochem firm produce essential equipment domestically (Iran Daily 25-Aug)
Bank Pasargad to open India branch (Mehr News 30-Aug)
Merger of Bank Sepah with 5 others in progress (Financial Tribune 05-Aug)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Rouhani rules out Trump meeting unless sanctions lifted (Financial Times 27-Aug)
Fears of sharpest recession since 1980s (Financial Times 19-Aug)
Tehran housing sales at 6y low, explains 6.4% YOY disinflation to 42% (Financial Tribune 27-Aug)
The Bazaar’s View
While there were constructive discussions at the G7, President Rouhani rejects French President Macron’s attempts to broker a meeting with the US President. Meanwhile, The Financial Times’ analysis of the IMF’s July revision suggests it now expects Iran’s economy to contract by 9.3%, far worse than 6% projected earlier in April.
The situation is clearly bleak, but the Bazaar emphasises that, barring a serious confrontation, this is the most Trump can damage Iran’s economy. If Iran can ride the storm, then there is potential for growth and recovery.
Fun Fact: London’s BFI Film festival to feature 3 Iranian films (Tehran Times 30-Aug)

The Bazaar Report 31-Jul-2019
Top 3 Company Headlines
Khodro & Saipa sign $60m deal for auto localisation (Financial Tribune 22-Jul)
PSA’s MENA sales down 68% over year due to US sanctions (Financial Tribune 15-Jul)
Largest source code host, Github, blocks developers in Iran (TechCrunch 29-Jul)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Talks in Vienna to save nuclear deal (BBC 28-Jul)
CPI at 48% y-o-y (Financial Tribune 24-Jul)
Insurance industry to allow startups to control 10% of market (Financial Tribune 27-Jul)
The Bazaar’s View
Tensions continue to escalate with Iran. With Boris Johnson as Britain’s new Prime Minister, negotiations may become more complex. The UK is expected to align more with the US. Tehran has exceeded its uranium stockpile, as was prohibited by the nuclear deal. Talks over INSTEX are continuing however, with further EU and non-EU members set to join. It will provide humanitarian goods but it will only last if it can cover all trade that was allowed under the nuclear agreement. This is looking unlikely in the current climate.
Fun Fact: ‘Just 6.5’ to compete in Venice Film Festival ( Tehran Times 26-Jul)

The Bazaar Report 30-Jun-2019
Top 3 Company Headlines
IKCO & Saipa to be completely privatised (Financial Tribune 24-Jun)
Petrochemical company (PGPIC) hit by US sanctions (Iran-bn 18-Jun)
Unnamed Private investors to fund Tehran subway extensions (Financial Tribune 24-Jun)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
US tensions at all time high; Vienna talks with EU not enough (Reuters 28-Jun)
FTA with 5 Eurasian countries, incl Russia, to be set up (Mehrnews 27-Jun)
New terminal in Tehran’s IKAC airport boosts overall capacity by 80% (Financial Tribune 18-Jun)
The Bazaar’s View
Recent developments exemplify the uncertainty in Iran. Heightening tensions, culminating in the shooting down of a US drone, have brought Tehran & Washington to the brink of military confrontation. Talks in Vienna were seen as a last chance to save the nuclear deal. While progress was made and INSTEX is now operational, Iran’s envoy stated that this was not enough.
Trump has been able to pass further sanctions as his administration attempt to further suffocate the Iranian economy, with GDP contracting 4.9% in the 2018/19 fiscal year. The Bazaar is apprehensive as the situation only continues to worsen.
Fun Fact: Iran to organise exhibition on downed US drone (Tehran Times 26-Jun)

The Bazaar Report 31-May-2019
Top 3 Company Headlines
Iran Android’s net income rises 89% YOY (Financial Tribune 21-May)
HiWeb acquires 23% Iranian Net (Financial Tribune 03-May)
Gazprom exploring possibility of hydrocarbon project investment (Financial Tribune 29-May)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Tensions rise as Iran suspend Nuclear deal (BBC 09-May)
CPI inflation at 54% YOY, 4% MOM (Financial Tribune 24-May)
Sanctions threaten 700k car industry jobs (Financial Tribune 18-May)
The Bazaar’s View
Iran hopes its actions can provoke Europe to strengthen INSTEX’s ability to bypass US sanctions. Iran put forth a 60 day ultimatum for remaining JPCOA powers circumvent US sanctions. Britain, France, and Germany remain committed but reject ultimatums. Russia and China back the deal and blame the US for its breakdown, but their ability to ensure Iran has access to world markets is questionable. The situation looks bleak under the Trump administration, which has implemented fresh sanctions on Iran’s metal industries.
Fun Fact: Former Belgium coach Marc Wilmots officially named as new head coach of national football team (Tehran Times 23-May)

The Bazaar Report 30-Apr-2018
Top 3 Company Headlines
Nokia to reduce operations after sanctions (Iran-bn 08-Apr)
Omani airline SalamAir to launch Tehran flights (Financial Tribune 28-Apr)
Korean SMEs with Iran relations going bankrupt after US sanctions (IFP 15-Apr)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
US to end oil waivers for major importers, expire 02-May (BBC 22-Apr)
IMF sees risk of 50% inflation (Bloomberg 29-Apr)
Free trade deal with Pakistan close (Iran-bn 13-Apr)
The Bazaar’s View
Waiver expiration is bumping IMF inflation forecasts to 50%. Even prior to the cancellation, GDP was projected to contract 6%, a level topped only in 2012 and during the 1980s Iraq war. The overall impact is dependent on actual fall in exports. In the past 5 months estimates suggest a fall from 2.5 to 1-1.3m b/d. After expiration and in light of China’s protests, a fall below 1m b/d is expected. In light of this, the EU have reaffirmed support for INSTEX, which is reportedly near completion.
Fun Fact: Ali Davoudi claims gold at Asian weightlifting championships (Tehran Times 28-Apr)

The Bazaar Report 31-Mar-2019
Top 3 Company Headlines
SAIPA to co-produce Chinese Sedan H330 in Syria (Financial Tribune 16-Mar)
Dep minister: Renault will return to Iran (The Iranian 14-Mar)
France stops Mahan Air Flights under US pressure (Bloomberg 22-Mar)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Supreme Leader Khamenei condemns INSTEX despite continuing talks (Bloomberg 21-Mar)
Merger of 6 banks with aims to curb military role (Bloomberg 02-Mar)
Major banking and trade agreements with Iraq (Bloomberg 13-Mar)
The Bazaar’s View
Khamenei holds ultimate authority and slammed INSTEX’s attempts to protect Iran-EU trade. Iran will continue to expand in Iraq and Syria in its fight against US sanctions but there remains pessimistic uncertainty on INSTEX.
Domestically, President Rouhani’s merger of state run Bank Sepah over 5 lenders will help maintain stability as it eases the regulation process. It remains to be seen if the move curtails hardliner influence.
Fun Fact: Iranians worldwide celebrated the new year ‘Nowruz’ on 21st March, marking the beginning of the Spring Equinox (Washington Post 20-Mar)

The Bazaar Report 28-Feb-2018
Top 3 Company Headlines
Qatar Airways expands operations (Financial Tribune 05-Feb)
Iran Khodro & SAIPA ‘special sales’ trigger frenzy (Financial Tribune 20-Feb)
Chinese carmaker Chery launches new model Arizzo 6 (Financial Tribune 02-Feb)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Countries in talks with EU to use INSTEX (Financial Tribune 18-Feb)
OTC FX market to be launched (Financial Tribune 25-Feb)
86% Y-O-Y rise in Tehran home prices (Financial Tribune 24-Feb)
The Bazaar’s View
Progress with the EU’s SPV has been made. Its effectiveness in countering US sanctions remains to be seen. Turkey is ready to set up its own SPV with Iran. The framework for the FX market has been approved. It aims to improve transparency and create conditions for a moderate exchange rate. The rial recorded fresh volatility with the USD rate surging 30% this year. Iran’s economy and the future of the Islamic Republic depends much on its ability to navigate its way out of crisis.
Fun Fact: The 8th edition of the Iran Video Game Festival took place this month, with 146 locally-developed games registered (Financial Tribune 05-Feb)

The Bazaar Report 31-Jan-2019
Top 3 Company Headlines
RTTE signs contract for 367 Tehran subway cars (Financial Tribune 09-Jan)
Sinopec offers $3bn on oil field development (Iran Daily 18-Jan)
Mahab Ghodss wins bid to build dam in Tanzania (Financial Tribune 27-Jan)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Euro SPV mechanism, Instex, set up & ready to be launched (Reuters 31-Jan)
China now top non-oil exporter & importer (Financial Tribune 30-Jan)
Major deals signed with Syria, incl banking and industry (Reuters 28-Jan)
The Bazaar’s View
Instex’s political symbolism is significant but its economic impact may only be modest. Ambitions have been toned down and realistically it will only be used for smaller trade permitted by the US, e.g. humanitarian products or food. It is unlikely to be operational for several more months. Until then its true impact can not be measured.
The US withdrawal from the nuclear accord has led to what President Rouhani describes as Iran’s hardest economic challenge in 40 years. Any economic growth may largely depend on continuing to expand ties with China and the likes of Syria, where US sanctions can not severely impede development.
Fun Fact: Carlos Queiroz resigns as Iran’s football manager after 8 years, follows from 3-0 exit to Japan in the Asian Cup semi-final (Tehran Times 31-Jan)

The Bazaar Report 31-Dec-2018
Top 3 Company Headlines
Khodro & Saipa increase car prices by up to double (Financial Tribune 29-Dec)
Bank of Kunlun restores ties but US restrictions loom (Financial Tribune 23-Dec)
Ports & Maritime org sign $428.5m deals (Tehran Times 22-Dec)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Prices continue to soar as Y-O-Y inflation at 37.5% (Financial Tribune 23-Dec)
EU trade mechanism delayed but will be implemented (Financial Tribune 11-Dec)
Tehran real estate deals fall 63% in past month (Tehran Times 23-Dec)
The Bazaar’s View
US withdrawal from the nuclear deal continues to fuel soaring prices through its impact on rial devaluation. Final agreements for the SPV are being made but its success in replicating the JPCOA remains to be seen. Hardliners who prefer relations with China and Russia are pressing for Iran to step back from nuclear obligations. With President Rouhani's achievement of low inflation and stable currency up in smokes, Iran faces a mounting set of challenges going into 2019.
Fun Fact: Iran’s beach soccer team end 2019 with world ranking of second (Tehran Times 31-Dec)

The Bazaar Report 30-Nov-2018
Top 3 Company Headlines
Khodro (IKCO:TSE) & SAIPA (SIPA:TSE) expand operations (Financial Tribune 19-Nov)
Bank Maskan loans $2.6bn in 15 months (Financial Tribune 18-Nov)
China’s NPC replaces France’s Total in South Pars gas project (Financial Tribune 26-Nov)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Germany & France likely to host Euro trade mechanism (Reuters 28-Nov)
Waivers granted to 8 oil buyers, incl India, S.Korea, China (Bloomberg 23-Nov)
Y-O-Y inflation at 34.9% (Financial Tribune 25-Nov)
The Bazaar’s View
Joint responsibility for the SPV aims to minimise the risk of US punishment. This comes after Austria and Luxembourg refused to host. There are fears that the SPV will not cover oil sales but only humanitarian and food products. For now, the waivers granted may be enough to satisfy Iran in spite of the fact all oil exports will be at reduced rates. There is much uncertainty amidst domestic struggles, demonstrated by soaring inflation.
Politicians are keeping the hope alive but businesses are sceptical and the outlook is poor.
Fun Fact: Four Iranian short films are competing at Lobo Fest, an International Film Festival, currently underway in Brazil (Tehran Times 30-Nov)

The Bazaar Report 31-Oct-2018
Top 3 Company Headlines
Sinopec (Xetra: SAK) cancel Nov oil order (Reuters 24-Oct)
$326m loan approved for Kermanshah Petrochemical (Financial Tribune 24-Oct)
Hyundai (HYMTF:OTC) cancels $521m petrochem deal (Arab News 29-Oct)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
EU mechanism to be ready by 05-Nov sanctions (Reuters 24-Oct)
Oil buyers hopeful of US Waivers (Bloomberg 19-Oct)
Inflation rate at 15.9% (Tehran Times 28-Oct)
The Bazaar’s View
The mechanism will be ready but not operational until early 2019. One problem is the EU is struggling to find a host state that would act as an intermediary and risk US punishment. India, Japan & South Korea are confident of winning US consent for some imports but they would likely be a lower amount with a pledge to continue reducing. Much of Iran’s future prospects rest on the upcoming month.
Fun Fact: Football team Persepolis reach Asian Champions League final after a 2-1 aggregate win over Qatar’s Al Saad (Payvand 24-Oct)

The Bazaar Report 30-Sep-2018
Top 3 Company Headlines
SafaNicu & Siemens (SIE:GR) launch largest wind farm (Iran-bn 07-Sep)
Volvo (VOLVB:SS) halts truck assembly (Reuters 24-Sep)
Energy trader Vitol to halt business (Reuters 25-Sep)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Oil exports crippling, down 35% from April (Bloomberg 18-Sep)
Rial hits record low, now at 170,000/dollar (Reuters 26-Sep)
EU, China & Russia back plan for continued trade (Bloomberg 25-Sep)
The Bazaar’s View
Tehran continues to face the impact of US withdrawal from the nuclear deal, with the second phase of sanctions coming into effect on 05-Nov. The fall in oil exports has prompted the rial to plummet to 75% of its value since January. Hope lies with the EU’s ability to implement a proposed mechanism that would sidestep US sanctions and allow international trade to continue unimpeded.
Fun Fact: Saeid Mollaei wins Gold in men's -81kg weight division at World Judo championships (Tasnim Sep-23)

The Bazaar Report 31-Oct-2017
Top 3 Company Headlines
Azimut acquires 20% of Mofid Entekhab (Iran-bn 11-Oct)
Norwegian Saga energy signs $2.5bn Solar deal (Iran-bn 22-Oct)
International Hospitals Group £1.61bn in cancer centres (Tehran Times 23-Oct)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Trump de-certifies nuclear deal (Sky 14-Oct)
Bitcoin infrastructure being prepared (Altcoin Today 30-Oct)
34% Y-O-Y growth in Tehran property market (Tehran Times 30-Oct)
The Bazaar’s View
The nuclear deal will be forwarded to the US Congress who have 60 days to make a decision. Other JPCOA members reiterated support for the deal and emphasised its bilateral nature. European business interests are at stake and lobbying efforts now focus on the US Congress.The uncertainty is bad for Iran.
The govt is interested in cryptocurrencies as a way to bypass trade sanctions. US hostility adds to this determination.
Fun Fact: Iran reaches U17 football World Cup quarter-finals - knocked out by Spain (Goal 22-Oct)

The Bazaar Report 30-Sep-2017
Top 3 Company Headlines
Quercus to build £440m 600MW solar farm (Telegraph 20-Sep)
Mercedes (DAI:XETRA) Iran Khodro (IKCO:TSE) deal (Reuters 12-Sep)
Bank Sepah to open 3 overseas branches (Financial Tribune 13-Sep)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Nuclear agreement faces uncertain future (BBC 22-Sep)
China agrees $35 bn loan; $10bn credit line (Daily Star 17-Sep)
Tourist arrivals fall 5.6% to 4.9m in 2016 (Tehran Times 11-Sep)
The Bazaar’s View
Trump condemned the nuclear deal at the UN. He will decide whether to certify the deal in October. If he does not it means a possible return to sanctions - the EU may move to block them. Many European firms are jumping at the chance to tap into Iran’s burgeoning markets.
Fun Fact: Iran’s national futsal team have won their fifth consecutive title at the Asian Indoor Games after beating Uzbekistan (27-Sep Tehran Times)

The Bazaar Report 31-Aug-2017
Top 3 Company Headlines
KPV Solar opens solar park (Iran-bn 26-Aug)
Renault signs joint venture deal (Reuters 07-Aug)
Bank Refah to boost capital by $2.1bn (Financial Tribune 20-Aug)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Credit lines worth $30bn secured (Tehran Times 29-Aug)
H1 Iran-EU trade triples (Financial Tribune 26-Aug)
Nuclear deal boosts Tehran bourse trade (Bloomberg 29-Aug)
The Bazaar’s View
These are the biggest credit lines since 2015. It includes a $9.4bn contract with S.Korea’s Eximbank. Austrian and Italian banks are among the other creditors. The Bazaar sees this investment as vital for President Rouhani’s major task of reducing unemployment. Exports to the EU are up 227% y-o-y to over $5bn and imports are up 38.5% to $4.94bn. The Bazaar expects further rises in trade and investment from the likes of Renault.
Fun Fact: Apple Store cuts Iran-made apps over sanctions (Bloomberg 26-Aug)

The Bazaar Report 28-Feb-2015
Top 3 Company Headlines
HOSCO and Saba Energy to invest $1.9bn in PGSEZ (IRNA 09 Feb)
Iran Insurance Co. starts petrochem investment (Financial Tribune 03 Feb)
IPO changes privatization directives (IRNA 21 Feb)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
$4.8bn from NDFI to go to oil industry (Reuters 24 Feb)
IMF recommends 2.5% budget deficit (IMF 09 Feb)
Exports to Iraq up 46% (All Iraq News 18 Feb)
The Bazaar's View
While economists have lobbied for a move away from oil/petrochemicals, the govt shows a lot of motivation to upgrade this industry, as major investment decisions by Iran Insurance Co. and NDFI indicate. Lower oil prices, sanctions and outdated technologies have exhausted Iran's most important source of forex.
Iran is cementing its economic position in Iraq while other investors shun the war-torn country. Iranian dominance has moved beyond food and basic materials, notably cement, and now also includes consumer cars. A near-finished gas pipeline looks set to increase Iraq’s dependence on Tehran.
Fun Fact: University of Massachusetts at Amherst won't block Iranian students from its science programs after all. The school first feared US legal action for transferring nuclear knowledge.

The Bazaar Report 31-Jan-2015
Top 3 Company Headlines
Danish Agro to invest €2bn in Hashtroud (IRNA 25 Jan)
Ericsson in talks with RighTel (Financial Tribune 19 Jan)
CCD Singapore Pte. Ltd enters IME (Financial Tribune 15 Jan)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Govt will not borrow from CB (Shana 05 Jan)
Padide Shandiz Co involved in $34bn fraud (FT 26 Jan)
Iran remains largest ME steel producer (WSA 24 Jan)
The Bazaar's View
2014 was not a good year for the TSE. Its broad index and equity trading fell 21% and 4%. Ongoing privatizations and IPOs have not prevented bad performance. The Bazaar believes the prime reasons are the closed and depressed capital market; the crucial role of the state in this market; and firms’ very low P/E ratios.
Iran looks set to face a deep budget deficit in the year 2015/16, by some estimated to reach $8.7bn. The govt has rejected borrowing from the CB and its forex reserves are large enough to weather a budget squeeze. However, higher prices and subsidy cuts will be priorities, likely eliminating hopes of demand-side growth.
Fun Fact: Iraq beat Iran on penalties in one of the most exciting matches of the Asian Cup. In football, Iraq is Iran’s rival number one; a rivalry originating in the Iran-Iraq War (1980-88).

The Bazaar Report 31-Dec-2014
Top 3 Company Headlines
Iran & Iraq establish Taawon Bank (Trend News 12 Dec)
Israel ordered to pay NIOC (IRNA 13 Dec)
Bergiz Insaat to build Tabriz subway (Customs Today 25 Dec)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
31.5% of next fiscal budget to come from oil revs (FT 7 Dec)
China invests in Iran to pay off debt (Financial Tribune 20 Dec)
Govt to tax several of Leader’s firms (Reuters – 11 Dec)
The Bazaar's View
Bergiz Insaat’s $850mn deal shows that Turkish companies are solidifying their grip on the lucrative Iranian construction market. Preference for Turkey is nothing unexpected for political and practical reasons. Turkish firms have consistently outperformed their Japanese and Chinese rivals in quality and building speed.
The parliament has moved to tax some of the large and shallow institutions under command of the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard. This move is coordinated by conservatives which shows how rapidly falling oil revenues have united the political elite in their drive to boost fiscal revenues.
Fun Fact: Iran Helicopter Company looks to start the country's first air taxis. The company expects it will mostly be used for oil and mine exploration, but why not go on a little desert tour with it?

The Bazaar Report 30-Nov-2014
Top 3 Company Headlines
Renault to buy 20% stake in Pars Khodro (Trend News 16 Nov)
IMIDRO & Outotec sign €9.3M deal (Trend News 23 Nov)
Indonesia & Iran create joint oil trade company (IRNA 15 Nov)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Nuclear deadline extended by 7 months (Al Jazeera 24 Nov)
Iran car production up 72% YOY (Financial Tribune 25 Nov)
German exports to Iran up 32.7% over 8 months (Reuters 04 Nov)
The Bazaar's View
French companies will profit from the resurgence in car sales. The govt has set tough investment and technology transfer requirements but willingness to sell Renault a stake in Pars Khodro should be seen as a sign of openness to foreign investment.
A nuclear deal looks increasingly far off as ‘big gaps’ are not resolved and the deadline is again postponed. While postponement is better than further isolation for the economy, it prevents foreign investors from making tangible decisions. With the deadlock in mind, the govt will exploit these extra months to deepen its foreign trade relations, notably with its direct neighbors.
Fun Fact: In response to the Iranian launch of a drone which was reverse-engineered from a captured American original, the US responded “it in no way matches American technology.”

The Bazaar Report 31-Oct-2014
Top 3 Company Headlines
Boeing’s first transaction with IRI since 1979 (Al Jazeera 22 Oct)
Six petrochem plants to be launched (Iran Daily 07 Oct)
Shahid Bahonar port’s non-oil exports double YOY (IRNA 13 Oct)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Brent crude hits four-year low (Reuters 13 Oct)
Steel growth first in the world (Iran Daily 29 Oct)
Iran & Turkey disagree on transit fees (Financial Tribune 20 Oct)
The Bazaar's View
Petrochemicals have been exempted from sanctions for a year and most of the industry is privatized. Although soaring earlier in the year, share prices have stabilized lately as investors realize Europe will not reclaim its 25% slice of petrochem exports, now stuck at only 5%. Chinese investment has become a main driver for capacity growth, but slumping Chinese and Indian demand point to the need to diversify.
Record-low oil prices are on every government’s mind in the Middle East. While fiscally relying less on oil than its GCC neighbors, Iran’s weak economy requires much higher break-even prices. The Bazaar believes economic growth might be compromised, although the govt’s fiscal prudence might limit surprise damage.
Fun Fact: Golden Eagle Tours has launched a two-week luxury train trip between Budapest and the “Jewels of Persia.” Demand has been huge. Despite starting prices of $14000, seats are fully reserved until 2016.

The Bazaar Report 30-Sep-2014
Top 3 Company Headlines
Pasargard Oil signs major tar export deal (IRNA 20 Sep)
Sofregaz fined for violating contractual obligations (Financial Tribune 18 Sep)
Iran-Russia Bank to be revived (IRNA 21 Sep)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Imports increase 30% YOY (Donya-e Eqtesad 03 Sep)
CB records Q1 growth of 4.6% (BBC Farsi 25 Sep)
EU reject freeze on CB assets (FT 18 Sep)
The Bazaar's View
The stock exchange has been falling for nine months and is unlikely to pick up soon. Businesses are anxious about the nuclear talks, threatened export markets and climbing imports. The latter has happened despite a relative depreciation of the Rial, putting into question the govt’s protectionist policies. A volatile Iraq and diminishing mineral and primary exports to China and India affect many of the country’s most profitable businesses.
The govt lacks a clear wheat policy. While the govt has made self-sufficiency in wheat a top-priority, it has simultaneously been forced to scale back production target as a national water crisis has shown these to be unachievable. The Bazaar believes self-sufficiency should be dropped as a policy. The falling cost of wheat imports from Russia, due to recent sanctions, is a good reason to import more.
Fun Fact: A plane full of US passengers on its way to Dubai was forced to land in Iran. Who would have panicked more, the passengers or the Iranian authorities?

The Bazaar Report 31-Aug-2014
Top 3 Company Headlines
Iran rejects Boeing’s prices (Trend News 14 Aug)
China to invest $10bn in petrochem plants (Iran Daily 26 Aug)
IKCO production increases 160% YOY (ISNA 18 Aug)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
$45bn allocated to fight local drought (IRNA 26 Aug)
FM calls short-term nuclear solution ‘impossible’ (Trend News 15 Aug)
Iran, Pakistan to establish joint banking system (Fars News 19 Aug)
The Bazaar's View
The govt’s price negotiations with Boeing and the increasing possibility of a longer nuclear standoff are likely connected. Foreign companies that entered Iranian markets during the 6+4 month Geneva period might soon profit from their first-mover advantage as later entry is set to become harder.
It’s summer and Iran is once again plagued by acute draught. For the first time the govt seems fully committed to fighting it and is ready to inject large amounts of money in new irrigation technologies, land reform and reconstruction of the environment. The Bazaar expects the govt to take a business-friendly approach to water management.
Fun Fact: Iran’s no-fly zones will be limited to just 5 (the nuclear facilities), down from 261! Passengers flying between Europe and South-Asia will soon be crossing Iranian airspace.

The Bazaar Report 31-Jul-2014
Top 3 Company Headlines
Wan Hai (2615:TT) resumes shipping operations (Fars News 22 Jul)
IKCO to produce new Peugeot and Renault cars (Trend News 26 Jul)
NPC envisions product diversification (Iran Daily 02 Jul)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Iran’s HDI remains unchanged (UN 24 Jul)
Nuclear talks extended (FT 19 Jul)
Turkey eyes new Iran trade routes (Trend News 07 Jul)
The Bazaar's View
Iran and the West extended nuclear negotiations for another 4 months as major differences remain. Businesses will be highly affected by this news, and it has already led to a dip of Iran’s oil exports. Despite this, the govt’s efforts to promote business relations have paid off and various foreign firms are or will soon restart operations. The Bazaar cautions against any premature decisions while talks continue and prospects of more sanctions remain significant.
The outburst of war in Iraq has led to an acute strengthening of ties between Turkey and Iran, as the former wants its Iraq trade routes redirected through Iran. The Bazaar similarly believes that Iran will be reevaluated upward in companies’ ME risk indexes amidst widespread unrest elsewhere.
Fun Fact: A Tehran cinema chain will make opening screenings free to attract customers and return to pre-Revolution sales figures. The director admits another factor, censoring, might be the stronger cause for decline.

The Bazaar Report 30-Jun-2014
Top 3 Company Headlines
Fokker Services B.V. fined for breaching sanctions (Reuters 05 Jun)
Renault (EPA: RNO) seeks partner to restart production (Tehran Times 20 Jun)
Iran Air in urgent need of 100 passenger jets (Iran Daily 08 Jun)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
UK embassy to reopen (FT 17 Jun)
$1bn state assets privatized in 2 months (Trend News 01 Jun)
Iran and Egypt aim at normalizing ties (IRNA 17 Jun)
The Bazaar's View
Iran’s passenger aircraft fleet is severely outdated due to years of sanctions. The govt predicts it will need 550 new planes by 2025 and looks to Airbus and Boeing as primary partners. Although Boeing secured a limited export license on spare parts, Fokker’s experience shows that sanctions remain strict. Conversely, Russian and Chinese companies will be eager to see sanctions remain intact.
Iran is looking to supply EU with gas as political relations improve and Russia once again behaves like an uneasy partner. With the 2nd largest reserves globally, Iran plans to export 80bcm by 2021. The Bazaar believes that realization of this plan might depend more on geopolitical developments than limiting domestic consumption and boosting investment.
Fun Fact: Despite strong defensive play against Argentina and Nigeria, Iran did not make it to the next round of the World Cup. Anyway, good effort Iran!

The Bazaar Report 31-May-2014
Top 3 Company Headlines
Russian Railways JSC to connect Iran, Azerbaijan (Trend News 12 May)
First official Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) representative launched (Fars News 28 May)
IKCO (TSE:IKCO1) starts production in Iraq (Iran Daily 25 May)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Saudi Arabia invites Iran for talks (FT 13 May)
240% YOY rise in guided European tourists (ISNA 23 May)
First of four billionaires executed (FT 24 May)
The Bazaar's View
Although only representing 6.3% of the economy, tourism has grown robustly over the past year due to improving international relations and turmoil in the wider ME. Major obstacles remain, including the world’s negative image of Iran and the ideological anti-US/Israel speech, both of which are connected. However, the govt’s push to expand capacity/facilities and ease visa restrictions will support employment and private investment.
This govt is getting more serious about corruption. The intention is good: according to the Transparency International Corruption Index, Iran ranks an abominable 144th out of 177 countries. Unfortunately, Iran is fighting corruption with impromptu arrests and executions, not by creating transparent, reliable institutions, and the rule of law. The Bazaar is pessimistic about tangible medium-term improvements.
Fun Fact: Iran has finally admitted that the US far outproduces Iran in pistachio production. The govt insisted however that US pistachio quality “is in no way comparable to the Iranian pistachio.” The Bazaar concurs.

The Bazaar Report 30-Apr-2014
Top 3 Company Headlines
Thomson Reuters (NYSE:TRI) explores deal with TSE (Reuters 10 Apr)
HP (NYSE:HPQ) awaiting WTO green light to enter Iran (Gulf News 14 Apr)
SAIPA output grows 27% YOY (Donia-e Eqtesad 27 Apr)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Record oil consumption at 100.7M liters/day (Trend News 5 Apr)
TSE surges after subsidy reform (Donia-e Eqtesad 26 Apr)
Iran, India, Afghanistan to sign sea trade pact (Iran Daily 06 Apr)
The Bazaar's View
The govt’s determinism to up oil prices to the Persian Gulf avg. is positive. Market stability and TSE growth also point this out. However, The Bazaar believes oil’s 43% price increase is too much and, in the short-run, will cause inflation rather than stop smuggling or consumption. The failed registration process for social benefits also signals continued populism & inflation.
The Bazaar is cautiously optimistic about the car industry since the govt extended support to this sector in the form of subsidized USDs. The Geneva Interim cancelled sanctions on Iran’s largest non-oil sector, increasing exports. However, the new subsidies will also result in higher domestic sales, still by far the most important market.
Fun Fact: The Saudi ambassador’s kiss on the forehead of ex-president Rafsanjani sparked controversy. Some argued it runs counter to cold IR-SA relations & usual SA diplomacy; others referred to Islamic respect for elders.

The Bazaar Report 31-Mar-2014
Top 3 Company Headlines
Norinco (SHZ: 000065) & CITIC (SEHK: 6030) chosen for rail projects (Trends News 18 Mar)
Essar Oil cuts Feb oil imports by 13.8% (Gulf Times 16 Mar)
PIDMCO & HPC sign $526M petrochem deal (Iran Daily 18 Mar)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Iran signs gas deal with Oman (FT 13 Mar)
Oil exports reach 1-year high & non-oil exports grow (ISNA 24 Mar)
Diplomats deny impact of Ukraine Crisis on nuclear talks (Reuters–18 Mar)
The Bazaar's View
Although some companies might cut oil imports to comply with US sanction regulations, the 1-million bpd framework has not proven watertight – hungry Asian importers have for a fourth consecutive month, and increasingly, surpassed this limit.
In end-of-the-year statistics, non-oil sectors, notably metals and petrochemicals, reported strong growth. While domestic inflation and lower market prices mostly depressed export values, robust Chinese demand lifted volumes significantly. Stricter sanctions diminished imports, thus tightening the non-oil current account deficit– leading some to predict, naively, that Iran will soon have a CA surplus.
Fun Fact: Western intelligence looked with deep suspicion at the building of a giant mock aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf. Iranian media later claimed that it is just meant to be a film prop.

The Bazaar Report 28-Feb-2014
Top 3 Company Headlines
Renault (EPA:RNO) restarts shipments to Iran (Reuters 29 Jan)
Boeing (NYSE:BA) and General Electric (NYSE:GE) apply for export licenses (ISNA 22 Feb)
Unnamed Japanese hotel chain ready to invest (Iran Daily 23 Feb)
Top 3 Macro and Risk Headlines
Iran and the West conclude preliminary nuclear talks positively (FT 20 Feb)
TSE stabilizes after month-long slump (Sharq 17 Feb)
Govt sets out conditions for foreign oil companies (Bloomberg 24 Feb)
The Bazaar's View
Although the govt’s focus on building a ‘resistance’ economy may sound disappointing, the Vienna talks were a step forward. The investment climate improved in those sectors taken off the sanctions list, notably car/plane parts and pharmaceuticals. The large French business group visiting Iran expressed similar sentiments.
The TSE stabilized this month in expectation of post-Norooz govt decisions. The TSE inflated too much this year and the IMF has been right to demand reform in an economy wrecked by “large shocks and weak macroeconomic management.” Similarly, short-term improvements in demand and unemployment hinge on the implementation of subsidy reform.
Fun Fact: 3 weeks left to ‘Chaharshanbe Suri’, a millennia-old festival where the point is to jump over fire.